US outlook: Sluggish growth but reduced risks of near-term recession | Eurobank
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US outlook: Sluggish growth but reduced risks of near-term recession

• Continued market stress and widespread business and consumer pessimism over the summer have raised concerns of a return to an outright US recession.
• In the short-term, we expect a rebound in real GDP growth to an annual rate about 2.0% in H2 2011 from 1.1% in H1 2011, on the back of a pick-up in personal consumption and favorable fundamentals for capex.
• However, our estimates suggest a below-trend growth of 2.0% in 2012 from 1.7% in 2011, as weak employment growth and persistent economic slack continue to weigh on personal income.