US: A mid-cycle slowdown rather than the onset of a renewed recession | Eurobank
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US: A mid-cycle slowdown rather than the onset of a renewed recession

• Real GDP growth slowed remarkably in the first half of the year, reflecting a large fiscal restraint, as well as a sharp drag from higher oil prices and Japanese-related supply chain disruptions.
• We expect the temporary drag from elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions to gradually fade by year-end, leading to a rebound in H2 2011 relative to the low bar set in H1.
• Although the downside risks to growth have recently increased, our estimates suggest that the current slowdown of economic activity signifies a mid-cycle slowdown rather than the onset of a recession.