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Romania: Q4 GDP data suggest end of domestic recession is probably in sight, but higher-frequency indicators still call for caution

Emerging Markets Special Focus Reports

28 Φεβρουαρίου 2011
• According to preliminary estimates, Romania’s real GDP contracted 1.2% YoY in 2010, less than our -1.8% forecast and market expectations (-2.0% in the Thomson Reuters poll). On seasonally adjusted data, GDP grew by 0.1% QoQ in Q4 2010. The news is positive, signalling a likely bottoming out of domestic recession in the period ahead

• Based on the aforementioned data and taking into account recent reading in a number of high frequency indicators, we expect an economic recovery to take place around mid-year 2011. i.e., a quarter later than presently expected by both the government and the IMF
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