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Grexit: why it will not happenEconomic and political ramifications of a withdrawal from EMU would be way too severe for such a scenario to materialize

Greece Focus Notes

05 Μαΐου 2015
Severe cash constraints faced by the Greek government due to a pretty demanding schedule of interest and amortization payments in the remainder of 2015 have lately engineered a new increase in sovereign bond spreads and rekindled fears of a “Graccident” down the road. Such fears have been exacerbated further in late April as the progress in implementing the February 20th Eurogroup agreement has proven to be rather slow and the cash-strapped State is struggling to meet sizeable debt service obligations. This paper leans on purely economic and political economy considerations to argue that calls for exit are ill advised, potentially involving immense risks.
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