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China: A soft landing amid a global slowdown

Global & Regional Focus Notes

22 Σεπτεμβρίου 2011
• China’s economy has eased moderately in H1 2011, strongly affected by the monetary tightening, the slowdown in demand from its major export partners, and supply-side bottlenecks.
• A rebalancing of the economy towards consumption could be underway, since the contribution of consumption to real GDP growth has increased significantly from 2010.
• Easing investment activity is expected to constitute the main drag on real GDP growth in 2011 and 2012.
• Overall, real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 9.3% y-o-y in 2011 and 8.9% y-o-y in 2012. This moderation can be considered a soft landing, with the risk of a marked slowdown rather low.
• In our view, even if advanced economies deteriorate much more sharply than anticipated, the downside risks to China’s growth outlook are limited by its flexible policy regime.
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