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1082-report

Global & Regional Monthly

01 Φεβρουαρίου 2008

• In the US, the recent deterioration of economic data suggests that the economy is heading to a full-fledged recession with a probability of 60%-80%, depending on how deep the housing downturn will prove over the coming months. We feel that our estimates are high enough to put recession in our central scenario.
• We expect the Fed to cut rates to 2.25% by April. The scope for further rate cuts is rather limited as inflation will remain above trend and target, putting a floor to short term interest rates.
• The US downturn will lead to a substantial economic slowdown in both developed and emerging economies, although the world economy may technically avoid a recession.

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