Draft Budget 2016. Estimating the recessionary impact of new austerity measures
Greece Focus Notes
08 October 2015
This note attempts to quantify the recessionary impact of the new package of fiscal austerity measures presented in the recently-unveiled draft budget for 2016. The study draws on our earlier empirical estimates on the size and regime-dependence of fiscal multipliers in Greece as well as on a number of assumptions regarding multiplier persistence and hysteresis effects.