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Greece Focus Notes

23 August 2013
This report takes a close look at the evolution of Greece’s twin deficits based on the most recent balance-of-payments statistics and the data for the State Budget execution. Moreover, it provides an assessment of recent developments in the real economy, taking into account the flash Q2 GDP release and a range of real activity and sentiment indicators signaling an ongoing stabilization of domestic economic conditions. The main views expressed herein are as follows:
The government remains broadly on track to meet its 2013 fiscal targets. Furthermore, we now assign a high probability of a small general government primary surplus this year that would open the door for additional debt-relief measures from official lenders, in line with the explicit commitments provided at the 26/27 November 2012 Eurogroup...
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