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An Updated Simulation for GDP and its components in 2013 and 2014

Greece Focus Notes

25 April 2013
• This note offers an update to the forecast for real GDP growth in Greece in 2013 and 2014 in order to account for the latest revision of the MoU, as well as the spill-over from the Cyprus crisis; a quantification of trends in components of GDP is conducted, with economic rationale invoked for each, and total growth is extracted from there.
• Under the main scenario, which takes into account only the expected impact of measures announced so far, real growth is estimated at -4.2% for 2013 (from -3.8% projected previously) and at +0.4% for 2014. The forecast is preliminary as fiscal measures for 2013 and 2014 are under review. Furthermore, uncertainty to the growth outlook remains unusually high.
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