A number of national statistics offices across the region are set to release later this month flash estimates of GDP growth for Q1-2016. Among them are Bulgaria, Romania and Cyprus. Serbia already published earlier this month its flash estimate, which was more bullish than expected. We anticipate other flash GDP estimates to confirm a good start in the year and serve as a reminder that there are few winners’ economies in the EM space. Lax monetary policies together with lower-on an annual basis- world energy prices continue to provide a positive boost on the growth momentum. Although this boost is destined to eventually fade away as energy prices normalize, it is poised to carry throughout 2016 as well; low energy costs keep inflation pressures subdued, supporting real disposable incomes and providing more flexibility to household, corporate, and sovereign balance sheets.
Regional Q1-2016 flash GDP estimates are set to confirm a good start in the year
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