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• Political noise could re-emerge in the near future after the surprise outcome of the second round of the Presidential elections
• After significant past quarterly output data revisions and shift in methodology, it became evident that Romania never entered a technical recession in Q2• GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% yoy in Q3 vs. 1.4% yoy in Q2 driven by resilient private consumption dynamics from the demand side and industry on the supply side• The declining investment rate is a threat to the sustainability of growth in the medium-term
• We see limited room for further easing through rate cuts in the foreseeable future after the 50 bps cumulative cuts in September and October to 2.75%