The Greek Economy in 2020: Impact from the COVID-19 crisis and Outlook

Despite having started the year with positive prospects, the Greek economy is expected to be vulnerable to the demand and supply shock caused by the COVID-19 crisis, given the large exposure of GDP to tourism and transport, and a large share of micro enterprises and self-employed in the labor force. Although an exact forecast is impossible due to lack of visibility on a number of parameters, sensitivity to different conditions can be assessed. In a moderate scenario, real GDP contraction is calculated to be -6.7% while in a more adverse scenario, real GDP contraction is calculated to be -10.6%. Both scenaria entail a steep decrease in private consumption, exports and investment, a sizable increase in unemployment, deflationary pressures and pressures on real estate and NPEs.