Choose Language Top Menu Main Menu Extra Button Menu Page Contents Footer Search

Despite having started the year with positive prospects, the Greek economy is expected to be vulnerable to the demand and supply shock caused by the COVID-19 crisis, given the large exposure of GDP to tourism and transport, and a large share of micro enterprises and self-employed in the labor force. Although an exact forecast is impossible due to lack of visibility on a number of parameters, sensitivity to different conditions can be assessed. In a moderate scenario, real GDP contraction is calculated to be -6.7% while in a more adverse scenario, real GDP contraction is calculated to be -10.6%. Both scenaria entail a steep decrease in private consumption, exports and investment, a sizable increase in unemployment, deflationary pressures and pressures on real estate and NPEs.