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Following the June 23rd Brexit vote in the UK and the Republican candidate Donald Trump’s election on 8 November for the post of the 45th US President, political risk is looming in the euro area over the next 12 months. Italy’s referendum on Constitutional reforms and Austria’s repeat presidential elections on 4 December are the first on the political agenda, followed by the general election in the Netherlands in March 2017, presidential election in France (April-May 2017) and federal election in Germany (September-October 2017). Among the most notable euro-area events in the immediate future is Italy’s constitutional referendum on 4 December that could have significant global market implications.
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