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2198-report

Global & Regional Focus Notes

01 November 2012
• Real GDP accelerated to 2.0% q-o-q saar from 1.3% in Q2 2012, on the back of stronger personal consumption and residential investment growth, as well as a jump in the government consumption component. 
• We expect subdued consumption growth ahead around 2.0%, with the expected fiscal contraction constituting the major drag. Further gains in employment should be pivotal to the outlook for personal income. 
• Real business fixed investment is on a downward trajectory, as increased global uncertainty and loss of business confidence weigh on business hiring and investment.
• The US housing sector seems to be the bright spot in the recovery, with positive gains across both activity and prices.
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