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Global Economic & Market Outlook (October 2012)

Easier monetary conditions and further steps towards the resolution of the European sovereign debt crisis should result in an improvement of economic sentiment. Fiscal consolidation will be a major drag to economic growth in the euro area and the US in 2013. Growth stimulus and further mutualization of credit risks are essential parts of a permanent resolution to the euro area crisis. Implementing effective consolidation and reform plans in a fragile US economic recovery will probably prove a real challenge for the US authorities at the end of the year. China’s growth is still in a soft landing territory but risks are biased to the downside, particularly if the government fails to deliver further sufficient measures and, what’s more, implement them consistently and effectively in the next few months.