World trade growth is set for a mild slowdown
Global & Regional Focus Notes
03 February 2012
• The expansion of world trade continued in 2011, albeit at a much slower pace than in 2010.• Most of the weakness in world trade volumes during 2011 reflects the relatively sluggish recovery of export volumes in advanced economies, which have yet to reach their pre-recession levels.• The slowdown in world trade volumes so far has been less severe than the one in the wake of the global financial meltdown in late 2008, and is not expected to reach those levels for several reasons.
• According to our estimates, world trade will expand by 4.9% y-o-y in 2012 down from 6.9% in 2011, before it rebounds by 7.0% in 2013.
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