Based on recent domestic developments and the progress in implementing the fiscal consolidation and structural reforms agenda agreed with official creditors, this report provides a detailed analysis of Greece’s macroeconomic outlook for 2016. On the economy’s short-term performance, our in-house econometric models for nowcasting Greek GDP signal a continuation of the domestic recession in Q4, with the respective range of year-on-year real growth estimates falling between -1.5% and -0.8%. Barring any major revisions in past GDP data, this would translate into a full-year contraction between -0.30% and -0.15% in 2015, with the respective carry over impacts into next year coming in between -1 and -0.5 percentage points.
