Greek GDP NOWcasting. Full-year recession likely to prove milder than expected
Greece Focus Notes
21 October 2015
Based on a number of macro data releases up to October 2oth, this note provides an estimate of Greek GDP for Q3 2015 as well as our preliminary forecast for the full-year. For this purpose, we utilize two distinct methodologies; namely the GDP Nowcasting framework we first introduced in late 2013 as well as a mixed-data sampling methodology employing MIDAS/Bridge-type models. As a reminder, our Nowcasting model produces high frequency, real-time estimates of Greece’s gross domestic product and other macroeconomic variables by applying an econometric methodology that can properly handle data reporting lags, revisions and other important aspects characterizing the daily flow of macroeconomic information.