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• Although real exports helped the manufacturing sector to become a leading contributor to the economic recovery, the pace of US export growth has recently decelerated significantly.
• The escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis over the summer has led to a slowdown of euro area imports, while the emerging markets slowdown has led to a deceleration of US export growth to developing Asia. • We believe that even if export demand to the euro area countries declines significantly in the coming months, robust growth in emerging Asian economies is expected to be supportive for US export growth in the quarters ahead.
• Although we do expect a narrower trade deficit, net exports are not expected to be a strong impetus for GDP growth, as global growth remains highly dependent on US consumption.