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• Recent activity indicators suggest the economy continued on a moderate growth pace, with solid growth in domestic demand compensating for weak exports.
• The government’s ongoing policy reforms that aim at rebalancing the economy are expected to support steady improvement in private consumption.• Import growth is expected to continue to outpace export growth, which is consistent with our view that domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth in the foreseeable future.
• Economic policy is expected to be particularly supportive for domestic demand growth. However, the central bank is not expected to cut policy rates soon, unless growth prospects deteriorate sharper than expected and headline inflation fall significantly.