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• Leading indicators suggest that what was initially thought of as a soft patch of the global economy due to temporary factors turns out as a persistent slowdown.
• Absent a severe deterioration in the European sovereign crisis, the global slowdown should be a controlled mid-cycle descent, mainly supported by solid demand growth in EMs and additional monetary easing.• Our estimates suggest a deceleration of global growth from 5.1% in 2010 to about 3.8% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012, with the largest downside risk being the European sovereign debt crisis.
• Negative factors for global economic activity will also be fiscal consolidation, combined with reduced credit, the erosion of household net worth and subdued personal outlays owing to persistently high unemployment and continued deleveraging