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• After a fairly negative picture of the US economy over the past few months, recent US data have been marginally stronger than expected, calming investors and easing risks of a return to outright recession.
• Consumer sentiment seems to have stabilized -albeit at low levels- and manufacturing surveys have improved, pointing to subdued but steady growth in industrial production ahead.• The temporary drag from elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions is gradually fading, leading to a rebound in H2 2011. Key for the momentum of the US economy will be developments in the US labor market.
• We continue to expect below-trend growth through next year, averaging at around 2.0% from 1.6% in 2011.