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• The global recession turned out to be much more severe than envisaged in late 2008. With global economic indicators collapsing over the past few months and financial conditions continuing to deteriorate, we have now cut our growth forecasts even further.
• We now expect global GDP to contract by 1% y-o-y in 2009, making the current recession the deepest - and probably longest - one in the post-war period. The recovery will be sluggish, with growth picking up to 2.5% y-o-y in the final quarter of 2010.
• The US recession is expected to deepen, as companies start to deplete inventories at an accelerating pace. As this process has just started, we expect the contraction in economic activity to continue in H1 09, with Q1 09 as bad as Q4 08, or even worse.