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  • Domestic economic activity is expected to decelerate in both 2008 and 2009 weighed down by tighter credit conditions and a significant deterioration in global growth dynamics. We now expect real GDP growth to come in at 2.9% this year, before sliding further to 1.0%-1.7% (interquartile range forecast) in 2009.
  • Domestic inflation spiked sharply higher in the first three quarters of 2008, fuelled by higher input costs and accelerated wage growth. Yet, retreating demand-side pressures, lower energy prices and favorable base effects are likely to facilitate some moderation in year-on-year CPI during the last quarter of this year. In 2009, we see disinflation accelerating, with the average annual CPI rate retreating below 3.5%