Flash GDP estimates suggest that the economies of the region remained on solid footing in Q2-2016

A number of national statistics offices across the region released today flash estimates of GDP growth for the Q2-2016. Among them, three economies of our focus Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus and earlier this month Serbia published relative strong flash GDP estimates. Vindicating our and market expectations, those readings suggest that the economies of the region remained on solid footing in Q2-2016. From a growth point of view, we still anticipate growth to accelerate in the economies of our focus compared to 2015. Low direct trade, FDI and banking sector ties with UK help the economies of our focus cushion any negative short-term impact from BREXIT. On the other hand, the broader region is significantly exposed to a Euro area slowdown due to a UK exit, given the former’s role as a key trade partner and a major capital flow generator for the region