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Global & Regional Focus Notes

13 January 2012
• US economic data have recently surprised to the upside. Leading indicators point to accelerating economic activity in Q4, reinforced by a significant improvement in employment growth.
• We expect a rebound of real GDP growth in Q4 towards 3.0% q-o-q saar from 1.8% in Q3, on the back of stronger personal spending and inventory accumulation.• Despite stronger short-term momentum, our longer-term view of the US economy remains intact for a below-trend growth in 2012, averaging at around 2%.
• Apart from the fiscal tightening which is expected to build as we head towards 2013, the US economy is expected to be hit by the Euro area sovereign debt crisis through trade linkages, financial conditions and credit availability.
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