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Euro headline inflation increases due to energy, but core inflation remains weak

Euro area headline HICP inflation increased to -0.1% yoy in March, from -0.3% in February, due to energy and food inflation. Core HICP inflation declined to +0.6% yoy in March, from +0.7% in February, scaling back to record lows reached in January. We expect headline inflation to remain at current low levels for H1 2015, and turn positive later this year due to positive base effects that will give boost to energy price inflation. Core inflation is not expected to climb towards 1.0% before 2016, as the marked depreciation of the euro will probably be offset by the lag effect of weak commodity prices on the price momentum of core goods and services.